Market Review: Positive Impact of Domestic Stabilizing Policies, Higher Likelihood of a U.S. "Soft Landing"
Domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy began to be gradually implemented this month, mainly focusing on the real estate sector and the activation of the capital market. Specifically, the real estate policy improvements include recognizing home ownership without recognizing loans in first-tier core cities, lowering the minimum down payment ratio, and reducing the lower limit of housing loan interest rates, including for existing first-home loans. To invigorate the capital market, measures like tightening IPOs, reinforcing restrictions on shareholder sell-offs, lowering financing margins, standardizing quantification, and reducing stamp tax have been implemented. These measures have been effective in stabilizing the economy and have significantly reduced the risk of rapid economic downturn and loss of control. Considering that market expectations had previously fallen quickly and confidence was low, there is hope for a marginal improvement in expectations. However, we can't be overly optimistic about the future market. Long-term challenges such as debt constraints, demographic issues, global industrial rebalancing, and bottlenecks in industrial upgrading are hard to resolve. Realistic policy choices for quickly and effectively addressing these issues involve the central government increasing financial leverage and reverting to old ways of aggressive stimulus. However, this would mean undoing the reform efforts of previous years, with increasingly high sunk costs, making it less likely to revert to those old ways going forward.
The 10-year U.S. bond yield surged to over 4.3% in August, reflecting tightened liquidity amid falling inflation. However, the U.S. economy also performed better than expected; the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's model even predicts that Q3 will show "re-acceleration," driven by consumption and inventory restocking. Other intrinsic drivers include global industrial rebalancing, AI innovation, and robotics, which will continue to benefit domestic U.S. investment and consumption in the medium term. On the corporate fundamentals side, we've seen an acceleration in revenue growth rates, alleviating concerns about a rapid economic downturn. Well-managed costs and disciplined expenditure have led to robust profit margins, particularly evident in the tech sector.
Market Outlook & Investment Strategy
Based on current policies and future expectations, the likelihood of rapid economic deceleration and risk of losing control has significantly decreased. However, the long-term challenges of economic slowdown and balance sheet contraction remain difficult to resolve. With the economic growth rate slowing down, intensified competition across many industries will likely lead to poorer profit performance. Ongoing anti-corruption measures and policy interventions in market pricing by various industries and government departments will continue to cloud long-term visibility and make asset pricing difficult. Therefore, we remain relatively cautious about domestic investment opportunities, demanding a higher risk premium in valuations. We also consider the potential intensified internal competition due to slower economic growth, risks related to real estate and local debt, as well as the impact of household and corporate balance sheet repair when evaluating a company's value. However, we do see some strong performers maintaining differentiation, exploring new growth points, and controlling costs well, such as leaders in cost-effective e-commerce and coffee chains. Given the stabilizing policies and lowered market expectations, we can be relatively more optimistic about individual outstanding companies.
We are relatively more optimistic about overseas investment opportunities. In the medium term, the scenario of maintaining high interest rates alongside a soft economic landing (or even exceeding expectations) is likely. This will make the valuation system relatively stable with minimal macro disruptions, which is very favorable for stock picking. From a macro perspective, we will mainly focus on the impact of factors like oil prices on the declining inflation trend and the impact of balance sheet contraction on interest rates. From a structural angle, both technology and consumer sectors offer opportunities. The technology sector, due to AI, offers even greater opportunities. Previously, we were in the "arms race" phase where hardware investments led the way; going forward, application development and commercialization are needed to sustain AI investments. We will focus more on tracking advancements in AI applications. The cloud security sector benefits from shifts in technology architecture, leading to increased demand for integrated hardware and software solutions. The growing complexity and high costs of trial and error make traditional security leaders even more beneficial. Additionally, the rising losses due to security vulnerabilities increase customer willingness to pay. This sector benefits from both AI technology and has its own growth logic. The consumer sector also offers several segmented structural opportunities, including new chain restaurants, new types of beverages, and niche sports brands.