Market Review:
Domestic gradual recovery, regional financial risk and inflation decline slowly putting the Fed in a dilemma, AI is the biggest structural opportunity The situation faced by the domestic macro in April did not change significantly. The strength of the economic recovery was weaker than expected. On the one hand, this reflects that the central government does not intend to solve economic problems by stimulus methods, and local governments also find it difficult to speed up the economy by leveraging in the situation where fiscal revenue is reduced and debt problems are gradually exposed, but instead face the pressure of deleveraging. On the other hand, it reflects the recovery of corporate and resident confidence, which requires more time for natural repair without external forces. Coupled with some long-term problems that have not been resolved, the long-term investment of enterprises (especially private and foreign enterprises) and the recovery of resident investment consumption are not so obvious.In April, the financial risks in some parts of the United States further fermented. On the one hand, the contraction of regional bank credit has begun to affect the sales of durable goods that rely on borrowing for consumption, with cars being a typical example. On the other hand, the number of banks at risk has increased, and the spread of risk has not yet ended. However, from another perspective, overall employment is still very strong, and the fall in inflation is not as fast as expected, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma. The more crucial issue in the future is where the peak of this round of interest rate hikes is and when to start cutting interest rates. After the 25 basis points interest rate hike in early May, the probability of further rate hikes has decreased, and the peak of rate hikes may be near or already here, and a rate cut within the year is not ruled out, which means that the room for further decline in the overall valuation of the stock market in the future is not large, while the probability and space for valuation increase are both increasing.In addition, recent earnings reports in the U.S. stock market reflect some interesting phenomena: 1) Large tech companies are very resilient, either the slowdown in business is better than market expectations, or some businesses have begun to bottom out and speed up. In addition, large companies have obvious competitive advantages, and gross profit margins are generally high. Once they start to control expenses, the release of profitability exceeds expectations. At present, companies have not fully utilized the efficiency improvement capabilities brought by AI. For large companies with high R&D and operating costs, the subsequent cost rate optimization space brought by AI is huge, and the market may not have fully priced this; 2) Advanced process semiconductor companies' performance generally reflects that the bottom of the business cycle may come later than the previous optimistic market expectations, but overall, it can be seen this year, just whether it's Q1 or Q2. The development of AI has opened up long-term growth space, overall, there are short-term fluctuations, but long-term opportunities are relatively certain. Similarly, the slowdown in growth caused by customer spending optimization faced by Cloud companies may also see the worst increase this year, but the long-term logic of increasing Cloud penetration rate has not changed.
Market Outlook & Investment Strategy:
The views on the market and investment strategy have not changed significantly. It is still believed that the short-term situation in China is gradually recovering, but the long-term outlook is unclear, which creates great difficulties for investment pricing. Long-term issues may also continue to affect corporate investment and consumer willingness. But overall, our view is neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic about the recovery. In a situation where the growth rate in various industries is slowing down or even not increasing, the importance of competitive advantages and patterns is more prominent, and we need to be more careful in discerning the sustainability of growth and profitability.Overseas, although there are short-term uncertainties, such as the specific high point of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, when it will cut interest rates so that the market valuation can stop falling and rebound, and whether the bottom of the semiconductor industry from a cyclical perspective is in the second quarter or the third quarter, etc. But the long-term direction is relatively certain, such as the limited space for interest rate hikes, so the overall market valuation has a small space for decline (and even the possibility of a valuation increase). For example, this year, we are likely to see the bottom of the business cycle in industries such as semiconductors and cloud, and subsequent growth opportunities will significantly increase due to the development of AI.It is still believed that AI may be the most important source of growth opportunities this year and for a long time in the future. AI's replacement and empowerment of labor in medium and high-end industries have crossed the chasm, and gradually crossed from 0 to 1 stage. In the long run, it is a market opportunity of trillions. In this process, everything from AI infrastructure to AI applications will benefit. On the one hand, it brings the opportunity of the strong getting stronger. On the other hand, there are opportunities for pattern reconstruction from 0 to 1.
The main areas of focus currently are:
AI: This is the most important structural growth opportunity in the future, currently mainly including semiconductors and cloud computing, etc.
Overseas cloud computing investment opportunities. We are optimistic about serving large corporate customers, good competitive segmentation; combined with AI, we expect to improve efficiency and enhance user value.
Structural growth opportunities in semiconductors, mainly looking at advanced process-related semiconductor opportunities, and AI will accelerate industry growth.
Overseas travel and tourism service platforms: benefiting from investment opportunities as the share of personalized demand in travel and tourism increases.
Structural growth opportunities in the field of financial payments, mainly optimistic about monopoly companies with strong network effects.
Domestic service industry, represented by property, vocational education and others, still has steady growth, value revaluation, and continuous dividend receiving investment opportunities.
Internet platform companies that still have good growth and reasonable current valuations.
Branded consumer goods companies with good development prospects and reasonable current valuations.
New energy vehicles: We are optimistic about links/companies that can establish long-term sustainable competitive advantages. In the short term, the deterioration of the industry pattern has not yet ended.
Defense: The demand is irrelevant to the macro economy and will benefit from future competition between major powers. The low correlation with other investments can reduce volatility for the portfolio.
US Treasury bonds: Will benefit from future inflation decline and interest rate normalization. It's a low-risk asset that's better than cash and different from stocks.
We will be happy to include other directions that meet our standards.
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