Market Review: Domestic economic recovery is weaker than expected, and overseas inflation decline is slower than expected
The domestic economic recovery is weaker than expected (the 2023 government target is set at around 5%), which reflects that the central government does not intend to solve economic problems by stimulating through monetary stimulus, indicating that the confidence of enterprises and residents needs more time to recover. At present, the most obvious recovery can be seen in areas that were heavily affected by the pandemic, such as travel and catering, as well as infrastructure investments to stabilize the economy. In terms of real estate, the transaction volume of second-hand housing has significantly recovered, new housing has started to pick up but has not yet turned positive year-on-year, and the boost to real estate investment has not yet been shown. However, the overall direction of recovery is relatively certain, even though the intensity is uncertain, it is more likely to be a moderate recovery so far.
The U.S. economy has recently been stronger than expected, reflected in particularly good employment and decent consumer data. Inflation has not fallen as quickly as expected, and market interest rates have been revised upward in response to the slowdown in inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. The 2-year Treasury bond yield had fallen to around 4%, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield had fallen to around 3.4%, but these two rates have recently risen rapidly to near 5% and 4% levels, respectively, and it is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates to 5.5% within the year, with rate cuts not expected until next year. The previous decline in interest rates drove the overall rise in market valuation levels, and the current rise is affecting valuations in reverse. However, overall, the decline in inflation is still the main direction. In the short term, with interest rates as high as 5% and the yield curve inverted, the economy will continue to deleverage, leading to a decline and possibly a recession, and inflation will also decline accordingly. Therefore, with the current expectation of the Fed raising interest rates to 5.5%, the further upward space is very limited. Last year, the benchmark interest rate rose rapidly from near 0% to nearly 4.6%, and now the amplitude is much smaller than last year, whether it is a further increase to 5% or 5.5%. Even if interest rates remain high, the impact of systemic changes in valuation is no longer significant. The key is to focus on fundamentals, pay attention to endogenous growth and profitability, and avoid areas with high leverage and reliance on new loans to repay old loans, or short-term capital invested in long-term projects.
Outlook & Investment Ideas
We maintain our previous judgment that the domestic focus in this year is on the economic recovery brought about by "steady growth and increase confidence, especially in the real estate and some consumer sectors. Currently, new home sales are still declining year-on-year, but since it was high at the beginning of last year and low in the following months, if the current transaction level is maintained, the annual transaction volume will turn positive year-on-year. Benefiting from relaxed policies and lower mortgage rates, new home market sales are expected to continue to recover, but it is still too early to say how this will translate into real estate investment. Consumption is improving overall, but there may be significant differences in sectors. Industries that experienced supply contraction and increased concentration during the pandemic, and those related to investment and business activities with greater demand elasticity, are expected to have greater improvement potential and better sustainability.
In terms of overseas markets, the fundamentals (expectations) may be a more important stock price driver than valuation factors this year. The overall market valuation level is more likely to shift from the "value killing" in 2022 to a "moderate valuation recovery," although the process may be quite volatile.
AI may be the most important growth opportunity for a long time to come, as the rapid widespread application of ChatGPT across various industries makes AI more than just a distant dream, but something that will start to profoundly impact and transform industries now. The Tesla Investor Day showed that AI applications in the robotics field have made significant progress compared to a year ago, and it may not be long before they are applied in industry. In general, we believe that AI has crossed the chasm in terms of replacing labor in higher-end industries and has gradually gone from 0 to 1, representing a trillion-dollar market opportunity in the long run, benefiting everything from AI infrastructure to AI applications.
In addition, as growth opportunities become increasingly limited, companies are starting to focus on quality and efficiency improvements, leading to operational efficiency improvements and profit margin increases that exceed our expectations. As investment demand decreases, more and more companies are returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, resulting in additional dividend yield returns. This is particularly evident in domestic and foreign technology, internet companies. Therefore, in addition to focusing on growth prospects, paying attention to corporate governance is also an essential part of future investments.
Market Views:
Hong Kong stocks: Relatively the most undervalued. Currently, the Hong Kong service sector is the most promising area.
Chinese concept stocks: The risk of delisting has been alleviated, and policy attitudes toward the platform economy have warmed up. There may be good opportunities in areas where the competitive landscape has not been affected or even improved, coupled with operational efficiency improvements and the possibility of increasing shareholder dividends/buybacks.
US stocks: The period of the most significant valuation disturbance has passed, and the impact of the recession is now better than expected. For some sectors (such as AI, semiconductors, cloud computing, payments, branded consumption, etc.), the recession is temporary, and growth is sustainable. Currently, there are many investment opportunities with strong competitive advantages, reasonable or even undervalued pricing, and the ability to expand globally and grow continuously. Even considering macro disturbances, their fundamentals are resilient or pessimistic expectations are already fully priced in.
A-shares (China's domestic stock market): Under the same stock selection criteria, A-shares' overall valuation is below the historical average but not as cheap as Hong Kong stocks. However, they will also benefit from the economic recovery, and we will actively seek investment opportunities.
The main areas currently focusing on:
1. AI: This is the most important growth opportunity in the future, mainly including semiconductors and cloud computing at present;
2.Overseas cloud computing investment opportunities. We are optimistic about companies serving large and medium-sized enterprise customers and niche markets with good competitive landscape, which are least affected by macro factors;
3.Structural growth opportunities in the semiconductor industry, mainly focusing on advanced semiconductor opportunities, and short-term cyclical fluctuations provide good entry points;
4. Investment opportunities in overseas travel and tourism service platforms in the post-pandemic era;
5. Structural growth opportunities in the financial payment sector, mainly focusing on monopolistic companies with strong network effects;
6. Investment opportunities in China's service industry with long-term growth and were severely undervalued, represented by property services and vocational education;
7. Internet platform companies with good growth potential and reasonable valuations;
8.Branded consumer goods with good development prospects and reasonable valuations;
9. Electric vehicles: optimistic about segments/companies that can establish sustainable competitive advantages;
10.Defense: Demand is unrelated to macroeconomic factors, and it will benefit from future great power competition. It can reduce volatility in the portfolio due to low correlation with other investments;
11.US Treasury bonds: will benefit from future inflation declines and interest rate normalization, making it a low-risk asset that is better than cash and different from stocks;
We will be happy to include other areas that meet our criteria.
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